Thus, what has happened in the last 1-2 years gives reason to hope that in the near future we can see a new, professional and corruption-free military system in Azerbaijan. But how realistic it will be is questionable.
Jasur Mammadov, Caspian Defense Studies Institute, chairman
After the Azerbaijan-Armenian war in 2020, the leadership of Azerbaijan declared that the national army had switched to a new military model – the military model of Turkey (Ilham Aliyev, 2022). In this regard, during the last two years, several changes have been taking place in the military system of Azerbaijan in at least the following 6 directions:
– additions and changes in the field of military legislation.
– updates on the process of conscription.
– updated material and technical supply of the Armed Forces, salary increase, pension provision.
– changes in the field of military education and, the creation of new military schools.
– staff-structural reforms in the Armed Forces, creation of new positions and military units.
– appointing new military personnel, the retiring of several servicemen.
Although the changes in the listed directions seem very ambitious, there is a question as to how serious and willful the authorities are in military reforms. Referring to various information, we can say that it will be difficult to carry out reforms in some directions in the process of formation of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan on the model of the Turkish army. These areas are specifically related to financing (corruption) and human rights.
Changes in military legislation
The changes made in the military legislation during the last months, especially the raising of the service period of military personnel from 20 to 25 years, and related to this, for example, delaying their right to get housing in terms of time, issues such as requirements for military personnel to serve longer, raise several questions. Official institutions, as well as members of parliament, believe that these steps serve the welfare of military personnel. However, according to several opposing views, it is not about welfare at all.
The initial conclusions emerging from various recent statements and various expert comments are that the recent changes in military legislation aim at the following various goals:
– the government has the desire to save some financial resources in the coming period,
– budget funds will be used for reconstruction and construction in the territories freed from occupation,
– the solution to the problem of lack of personnel in the Armed Forces.
There can be many other reasons. However, the recent changes have created a negative mood in several servicemen of the Azerbaijan Armed Forces. Discussions in the online media show that military personnel who are about to retire in a short period are especially worried. But it seems that the authorities were forced to make some „compromise“ in this direction, considering this dissatisfaction. Thus, the last change regarding the duration of military service will not apply to „servicemen who have less than 3 years left to complete the 20-year term“. That is, they can complete 20 years of military service and retire according to the old rule, or they can complete 5 more years of military service according to the new rule. In other words, they were given a choice. Others are deprived of this option.
The new changes in the military legislation can indeed tempt the military personnel to serve those additional 5 years, and it is reported that there will be some increases in the salaries during these 5 years and in the pension given after 25 years of service compared to the present. But these can be considered minimal increases. Given the majority’s desire, it is believed that the option should be created for all military personnel who entered military service before the recent change. They have to decide for themselves whether they want to serve 25 years or not. For example, an officer who has 5 years to complete military service cannot be forced to serve 10 years instead of 5 years. This cannot be considered an appropriate approach to human rights and legal regulation.
In general, according to some experts, the main reason for the changes in the military legislation is the formation of the strategic basis of large amounts of funds that will ensure the major changes that will take place in the Armed Forces in the future. It seems that the authorities are forming the financial basis for the future „alternative army building“. To what extent this is a valid idea or not will probably become clear in the near future.
Contract or compulsory army?
Most likely, in the near future, within the framework of the strategy of reconstruction of the security and defence sector in Azerbaijan, two directions will be officially separated:
The first direction is related to the structures of the „traditional army“ formed in Azerbaijan based on the Soviet military legislation, subject to certain changes from time to time, where the situation will be mostly stable, but at the same time restrictive. Currently, the changes in the military legislation are mostly related to this direction – that is, the „traditional army“. More different steps can be observed in this direction in the near term. Here we can talk about the reduction of the number of personnel. But this is a process that will probably take 5-10 years. It can be assumed that as a result of this process, the „traditional army“ system will gradually be excluded from the process of new reforms. The initial, observable phase of this separation is currently taking place. But in the near future, the dividing lines may become clearer. The goal is probably to make this separation process painless and with minimal damage.
The second direction is the special military units established with the support of the Turkish side – we can mention the „commando“ military units here. At the same time, various newly created military units, and new tasks can be considered as part of the process.
Several observers analyzing such a situation believe that it will be impossible to carry out any high-quality reforms without serious reductions in the presence of the existing army with numerous personnel. According to those who hold this position, to carry out the reforms effectively, the existing Armed Forces must be reconstructed first. It is about optimising the number of existing military personnel and adapting the number of military units to modern standards. Any changes made without them will cause a serious loss of time and money.
One of the interesting points is related to the current structure and service rules of the Turkish Armed Forces, which Azerbaijan will take as a model. Several experts believe that the Azerbaijani side is actually transitioning to a professional and contract army system by adopting these reforms. However, according to some approaches, this can be considered a misconception. Of course, the Turkish Armed Forces can be considered a professional army system in terms of structure, operation, and management, but this system is not contractual, but mandatory. This means that military service is compulsory in Turkey, and in this respect, the Turkish Armed Forces differ from the armed forces of most NATO countries. At the same time, we have to distinguish between two conscription military systems – a conscription army system according to NATO standards and a conscription military system according to Soviet military standards. Although various reforms have been implemented in the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan for many years, the system itself is based on the Soviet military system. From that point of view, logically, the Azerbaijani military system should achieve several serious changes by switching to the Turkish military system.
But what serious changes can we talk about? It should be taken into account that in various indexes and international reports, Azerbaijan ranks last in terms of corruption and human rights problems related to the military sector as well as in general. For example, according to the Transparency International report published in 2020, Azerbaijan faced serious corruption problems in the military field (Transparency International, 2020). Another disturbing issue is related to the problem of human rights in the military field. Various illegal cases and tortures against servicemen in the Azerbaijan Armed Forces have been repeatedly reported. For the last time, in 2017, more than a hundred military personnel were arrested, accused of treason and tortured. Several of them were killed by torture (Freedom House, 2022).
Despite all this information, reports and accusations, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan does not confirm the presence of problems in the mentioned directions in the Armed Forces or refuses to comment on the opinions and questions raised in this direction. Thus, in the process of the new establishment of the army, there are serious doubts that the mentioned problem areas will be taken under control and work will be done to solve the problems.
How will Azerbaijan benefit from Turkey?
According to information provided by various sources, more than 300 military instructors of the Turkish Armed Forces are currently working in Azerbaijan. The main part of them is concentrated in the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces. One group of Turkish military instructors works in military educational institutions, while another group supervises the processes taking place in various military units. According to the information provided, the Turkish military closely monitors the processes in the army, registers problems and presents proposals and plans for their elimination. According to the latest unofficial information, these proposals are mainly related to the financial policy and personnel situation. The recent decisions, the creation of new military educational institutions, the encouragement of citizens to study in these educational institutions, changes in military legislation, as well as arrests related to corruption in the army in the last one or two years, and other steps may be directly or indirectly related to the two directions mentioned above.
If the issues are examined in some detail, it can be seen that starting from the process of conscription, preparations, military education, and careers can solve the personnel problem in the Armed Forces to some extent. Making certain changes to the law on conscription, especially the new changes in the medical certification of conscripts, suggests that the Turkish side is interested in eliminating existing illegal situations in the military service system. At the same time, the creation of new military educational institutions in Azerbaijan, and the adoption of certain encouraging decisions for applicants, most likely means the renewal of the personnel staff in the Azerbaijan Armed Forces in a short period and the rejuvenation of the army.
But what will be the solution to the observed problems related to the financing of the army and the military budget? It is not a secret to anyone that the provision and supply of the Azerbaijan Armed Forces has traditionally been and is being carried out by companies close to the ruling political family. Bidding (tender) competitions and other similar activities were, and still are, largely closed to the public. In recent changes in the legislation, restrictions on the transparency of military tenders have been increased. In such a situation, it is very difficult to believe in the efficiency of the new construction of the Armed Forces.
Various other issues of concern are related to, for example, the problems related to human rights in the military, democracy in governance, and so on. It is questionable how they will be solved, and whether there are any strategic plans in this direction in Turkey-Azerbaijani military consultations.
One of the main serious issues is related to the implementation of democratic control mechanisms over the army. Here we are talking about the accountability of the army not only to the civil society (mainly NGOs and the media), but also to the parliament. Keeping the media and NGOs out of the process of military reforms, naming any information related to the military field as „military secret“ or „state secret“, intolerance to criticism, and so on, are serious concerns.
Conclusion
Thus, what has happened in the last 1-2 years gives reason to hope that in the near future we can see a new, professional and corruption-free military system in Azerbaijan. But how realistic it will be is questionable. Because many negative factors related to the construction of the army have not yet been eliminated, it reduces the confidence that the reforms will be implemented effectively. However, there is a promising issue in this whole process, which is related to the participation of an outside party in the processes – Turkey. The fact that Turkey, a member of NATO, participates in these processes, supervises the reforms, and discusses this situation with the Azerbaijani side gives grounds for positive hopes. In such a situation, there can be some confidence that low and middle-level bribery and corruption in the army will disappear. However, the elimination of corruption at the top level is probably a matter related to the change of political power in the country.
Sources
President Ilham Aliyev: Azerbaijani Army is developing on basis of Turkish model, 13.06.2023,
Transparency International Defence & Security, Azerbaijan – Government Defence Integrity Index, 2020, https://ti-defence.org/gdi/countries/azerbaijan/
Freedom House, „Azerbaijan: Nations in Transit 2022 Country Report”, 2022, https://freedomhouse.org/country/azerbaijan/nations-transit/2022
CASPIAN DEFENSE 